As and Tencent’s behind the scenes investors Zhang Lei said the best investment is no need to withd

I think a valuable investment is to spend enough time with high-quality people to do high-quality things.

ultra long term investment is a kind of belief, for us the best investment exit does not need investment, if you can find a good company to be able to follow him to invest ten years and twenty years, thirty years, in fact, you have more than composite income, after investing in a company to find out next.

editor’s note: the author, life three poison for well-known websites and web game company founder, previously served as a senior editor of IT media, witnessed the early development of China’s internet.

probability theory

2005, Zhang Lei bought the shares of the Tencent, the Tencent had less than $2 billion valuation, today, Tencent market value has more than $200 billion, he still holds; investment Jingdong Liu Qiangdong mall, opening $70 million, Zhang Lei invested 300 million yuan, since then, has been "connivance" Jingdong mall consecutive losses……

, we’ll show you the investor who has been hot in the circle, and his investment methodology as a Jingdong, Tencent, and behind the scenes approach.


Most of group

from the New York stock exchange China District first representative, to 2005 founded Hillhouse capital, a fund management is the earliest Yale University investment fund office to provide $20 million to the end of 2014, management scale of more than $18 billion in capital, Zhang Lei’s investment style and investment guru Benjamin Graham and his "Warren" Warren Buffett disciple with specific, that is the value of the investment.

this is the conflict between mathematics and human intuition. Many people use a few dollars to obtain a the impossible hope, every hope attributed the failure to his bad luck, and enter the next hope, but in the strict mathematical projections, these already doomed to failure. That’s the true picture of most of the entrepreneurial outcomes I’ve seen in the last 10 years.

of course, numerous martial arts kung fu, we can not say that the value of the investment must be Shaolin Wudang were authentic, but I think the value of the investment is a broad road. I hope you will do more long-term structural investment, less short air outlet.

lottery is a tax on people who don’t know math." This is the conclusion of a British mathematician about the lottery.


chaos theory

so let’s take math to restore the most fashionable thing:

as one of the most recognized top investors in the industry, in the hubbub of investment circles, Zhang Lei although very well-known, but for the outside world, but the low-key mountain, no dew.

2, the probability event is equal to the inevitable event.

investment company’s investment, the real good company is limited, the real pattern view, mind and execution of entrepreneurs is limited, not to find the best long-term holding, help entrepreneurs the best ability to play the. Therefore, we hope that the investment companies from the early, medium, late, listed and even after the listing has been held. Rather than vote for a IPO, listed to sell, and then kept looking for.

in a city where I’m in the game industry, I’ve read statistics registration

to Hillhouse capital investment where for example, whether it is the cornerstone of the investment in where the founder of early risk investment, or where to go with the listed IPO, as well as the investment orientation after the listing of convertible bonds, until recently after the merger with Ctrip, Hillhouse and a $1 billion investment in ctrip. Create value Hillhouse whole industry investment in the whole life cycle, this road can go far, instead of constantly looking for the next opportunity for investment, in order to make the enterprise make Chinese good business, growing together with them.

human behavior, such as the stock market, foreign exchange market, a quarter of popular clothing, such as a large outbreak of "Thai" embarrassed, have been attributed to a modern science called chaos chaos subject, and the subject of the most famous story is the butterfly effect. While the business is definitely a part of the chaotic system, so we don’t have to look at every year, Barron to forecast the stock, also do not have to listen to the teacher Li to predict future business, basically because these predictions in the chaotic system has been strictly proved ineffective and inaccurate.

returns to the topic of entrepreneurship, and if the reader has read a few of my previous articles, there must be the illusion that entrepreneurship can easily make a multimillionaire. In fact, the only winners can be reported by the media, and the losers will rarely appear, which is called the Matthew effect, a full-scale invasion of mass media, will let you have an illusion that entrepreneurship is the most fashionable and most likely to succeed.

lottery for individual buyers, the prize is unlikely to happen, but for the whole group to buy lottery, it will inevitably happen overnight legend.

entrepreneur success is a small probability event, want to make a lot of money is difficult; and for VC and media, success is a high probability event, just don’t know who happened, so position is not the same. A lot of things are chaotic and unpredictable. Then why do you want to start a business? How do you change a small probability event into a big probability event? That’s the answer every entrepreneur wants to find. Author: life three poison

one, the best investment does not need to exit

1, a small probability event is equal to an event that cannot occur;

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